Ebola at 50: The Vaccine Built for a Different Strain
Summary
- Congo's 2026 Ebola outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain, had killed 4,205 people by October 6th, the deadliest in the country's history, and on October 6th Kenya confirmed its first case.
- Ervebo, the licensed Ebola vaccine the WHO recommends for outbreaks, was built around the Zaire strain, and the WHO says it is not known whether it protects people against Bundibugyo.
- Ebola was identified in 1976, and the vaccines, treatments, and tests that followed were aimed at Zaire, the species behind the largest outbreaks.
In August, the Democratic Republic of Congo received 70,000 doses of Ervebo, the licensed Ebola vaccine that the World Health Organization recommends for outbreaks. The agency set aside 20,000 of them for a clinical trial and the rest for frontline and health workers, and it attached an unusual caveat. "It is not known whether Ervebo may be protective against the Bundibugyo virus in humans," it wrote. The vaccine was built for one Ebola. The outbreak in eastern Congo is being driven by another.
That outbreak, declared on May 15th and centered on Ituri Province, had killed 4,205 people among 8,728 confirmed cases across seven provinces by October 6th, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. It has passed the 2018–20 epidemic to become the deadliest in Congo's history, and the WHO has warned that it is "far from over" and on track to exceed the West African epidemic of 2014–16, which killed more than 11,000 people. There has been the occasional piece of good news. STAT reported that mobile laboratories have cut the wait for a test result from 72 hours to six, in a response repeatedly set back by armed conflict.
In early October, it reached a new country. On October 6th, Kenya confirmed its first Ebola case, a Kenyan man who had lived in Congo for seven years and had been sick for about a month before he traveled by road to Kampala, Uganda, and flew to Nairobi on October 3rd. He went straight to a hospital and died there two days later, and tests identified the virus as Bundibugyo, the WHO's representative in Kenya told UN News. Officials have quarantined at least eight of his relatives and 21 health workers who cared for him, and are tracing 23 passengers and four crew members from his flight, according to Al Jazeera. A second suspected case, a 20-year-old man in Wajir County who had also traveled from Congo through Uganda, tested negative in preliminary results on October 8th. Kenya now faces the gap Congo has been working around since May, with no licensed vaccine or drug proven to work against the virus that killed him.
The trouble starts with the name. "Ebola" is not one virus but several. Four related species are known to cause disease in people, according to the National Academies, namely Zaire, Sudan, Bundibugyo, and Taï Forest. They differ enough that, in the Academies' words, "a vaccine or treatment developed for one Ebola virus may not work as well—or at all—against another." Bundibugyo is the most recently identified of the four. It was first recognized in 2007 in Uganda's Bundibugyo district, and before this year it had surfaced only rarely, most recently in northeastern Congo in 2012, when it sickened 62 people and killed 34.
Ervebo's specificity is built into its design. It starts with a weakened livestock virus and swaps that virus's outer-coat protein for the matching protein from the Zaire virus, taken from a sample collected during a 1995 outbreak in Kikwit, Congo. The immune system learns to recognize that one protein. Bundibugyo's version is related but not identical, which is why the Food and Drug Administration, when it approved Ervebo on December 19, 2019, listed among the vaccine's limitations that it "does not protect against other species of Ebolavirus." That line was written from an absence of evidence rather than a failed test, and the evidence since has been mixed. The WHO says early laboratory and animal data suggest some protection, and newly published data show that vaccinated people make antibodies that recognize Bundibugyo, though at lower levels than against the virus the vaccine was designed for. The trial in Congo is meant to settle the question.
The gap runs wider than the vaccine. The two licensed antibody treatments, Inmazeb and Ebanga, are approved for Zaire ebolavirus only, and GeneXpert, the most commonly used frontline testing machine in this response, detects Zaire but not Bundibugyo. A health worker in Ituri this summer could be vaccinated, tested, and treated with tools that were all aimed, with great precision, at a different virus.
How the world ended up there goes back fifty years. Between early September and late October 1976, 318 people in northern Zaire, now Congo, developed a hemorrhagic fever and 280 of them died, according to the international commission that investigated it. The first case fell ill five days after an injection of chloroquine for presumed malaria at the outpatient clinic of the Yambuku Mission Hospital, and almost every case that followed had either received an injection there or been in close contact with a patient. The hospital closed after 11 of its 17 staff members died.
On September 29, 1976, a pilot for the Belgian airline Sabena delivered a thermos of blood samples from Zaire to the Institute of Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, where a team that included a young Peter Piot found a virus it could not identify. As Helen Branswell has reported, it was a team at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, led by Karl Johnson, that confirmed the virus was new. Johnson proposed naming it after the Ebola River rather than the village of Yambuku, to spare the village the stigma.
That same year, an outbreak in southern Sudan killed 151 of the 284 people it sickened. It was caused by a different species, now called Sudan virus, so "Ebola" was plural almost from the start. But it was the Zaire species that kept coming back, and from 2014 to 2016 it caused the West African epidemic, with 28,610 cases and 11,308 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
That epidemic is why Ervebo made it out of the lab. Canadian government scientists built it in the 2000s, but it sat on the shelf for years because a vaccine for occasional outbreaks in poor countries had no commercial market. West Africa brought the money, the clinical trials, and the fast-tracked approvals, all aimed at the virus that had just killed more than 11,000 people. It was a defensible choice, and also a bet that the next big outbreak would look like the last one.
That bet is now being hedged in a hurry. On July 20th, the University of Oxford began enrolling volunteers in the first trial of a vaccine designed for Bundibugyo, built the same way as the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, and its manufacturer, the Serum Institute of India, made and stockpiled about 620,000 doses within two weeks. A second vaccine, from the nonprofit IAVI, is a version of Ervebo rebuilt for Bundibugyo, and it protected every animal in early tests in monkeys. Moderna is developing a third. Researchers are also testing treatments, including MBP134, an antibody drug designed to work against every Ebola species rather than just one, and an antiviral pill, obeldesivir, given to people who had close contact with patients in the hope of stopping infection before it starts.
None of these will reach the scale of the outbreak quickly, and the lesson they point to is older than this epidemic. Countermeasures built around a single species are fast to make and narrow by design, which works until a different species turns up. A treatment like MBP134, aimed at the family rather than one member, is an attempt to stop preparing for the last outbreak. Fifty years after a thermos of blood landed in Antwerp, the question for the next one is less whether the world has an Ebola vaccine than whether it has one for the Ebola that arrives.