What the NFL's Preseason Is Telling Us About the 2026 Season
The 2026 NFL season gets underway September 9, when Seattle hosts New England in a Super Bowl LX rematch. The league shifted the opener to Wednesday to avoid overlapping with the first regular-season NFL game staged in Australia, where the 49ers and Rams will meet in Melbourne the next evening.
Yet the unusual scheduling is only part of the offseason story. Much of the summer has revolved around a more fundamental issue: how do you put a number on a player's worth? Two of the NFL's biggest names have offered remarkably different answers, and neither case fits neatly into the headline version.
Start with the coaching carousel. Ten teams installed new head coaches, including two franchises where such upheaval had become almost unthinkable. Baltimore dismissed John Harbaugh after 18 seasons, and the Giants hired him only days later. Pittsburgh saw Mike Tomlin depart after 19 years, with Mike McCarthy taking over. He becomes only the Steelers' fourth head coach since 1969.
Buffalo made its move without looking far. The Bills fired Sean McDermott and elevated offensive coordinator Joe Brady, keeping the transition inside the building. At 36, Brady became the NFL's youngest head coach. During his introductory news conference, he accepted responsibility for the five turnovers that doomed Buffalo against Denver in the playoffs and explained his approach to leadership with a weather metaphor.
"I'm the weather, and they're going to feel it every single day." — Joe Brady, Bills introductory press conference, January 2026
Kansas City also finds itself in unfamiliar territory. The Chiefs finished 6-11, missed the postseason for the first time during the Patrick Mahomes era, and began the preseason ninth in ESPN's Football Power Index, their lowest standing since 2018. That was the same season Mahomes became the starter and led Kansas City to a 12-4 record.
Mahomes has worked without restrictions since training camp began, roughly eight months removed from surgery to repair torn ACL and LCL ligaments. For him, the challenge is finding the line between caution and confidence.
"trying to protect it but at the same time, trying to push it" — Patrick Mahomes, on his surgically repaired left knee, Chiefs training camp, August 2026
The preseason favorite is in Los Angeles. The Rams acquired Myles Garrett in June, adding the reigning Defensive Player of the Year to a roster led by Matthew Stafford. Among the rookies, meanwhile, one quarterback figures to dominate the conversation once the season settles in: Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, selected first overall by Las Vegas. The Raiders intend to open with Kirk Cousins under center, at least until that plan changes.
That brings the focus to Kyler Murray and the first of two financial contradictions. Arizona released Murray March 11. The Vikings signed him the following day for $1.3 million, essentially the veteran minimum. On the surface, the figure seems extraordinary for a former No. 1 overall selection and two-time Pro Bowler.
But the headline number leaves out the larger transaction.
Arizona still owes Murray $36.8 million in guaranteed money tied to the extension he signed in 2022. Minnesota is responsible only for the comparatively small amount above that obligation. In effect, one organization is still paying him like a franchise quarterback while another is employing him at a price normally associated with a temporary backup.
And Minnesota clearly sees him as more than that. Kevin O'Connell named Murray the Vikings' Week 1 starter in early August, ending a quarterback competition with J.J. McCarthy that appeared far less competitive to people outside the organization.
"he's shown enough to really project" — Kevin O'Connell, on naming Kyler Murray the Vikings' Week 1 starter, August 2026
Aaron Donald offers an almost mirror-image scenario.
The three-time Defensive Player of the Year retired in March 2024, yet this summer he has done very little to close the door on a comeback. Donald worked out twice at the Rams' facility, sessions formal enough that the team was required to record them with the league as tryouts. He also appeared at UCLA wearing Rams gear and working against a blocking sled.
When a child asked him directly whether he was coming out of retirement, Donald smiled and admitted he wasn't sure, saying they would find out. Sean McVay has since acknowledged that the Rams are ready to pursue a reunion if Donald decides he wants to return.
The financial wrinkle is what makes the story especially strange. Donald did not finish out his contract before retiring. Should he formally return, that old agreement would come back into effect, and Los Angeles would owe him roughly $30 million for 2026.
That would mean a 35-year-old who has not played a regular-season snap in two years could carry a larger financial obligation than Minnesota's starting quarterback. It is not the result of a fresh negotiation. It is simply the lingering consequence of an agreement made years earlier.
Put the Murray and Donald situations next to each other, and a larger truth emerges about NFL economics. A player's value is not always determined by the player standing on the field. Often, it reflects a wager made at an earlier point in time, when expectations were at their highest. Once that wager becomes a contract, its financial consequences can continue long after the underlying assumptions have changed. Football is not alone in this. Baseball produced its own version of the problem this spring, when the Mets' $370 million payroll, the second largest in the sport, delivered a 12-game losing streak rather than a contender.
Arizona is still paying for the quarterback it believed Murray would become in 2022. Los Angeles could soon be paying for the dominant defender it believed Donald would remain when their agreement was made.
That distinction between what someone is worth today and what an organization once believed he would be worth helps explain why August feels so unsettled. The season opener between Seattle and New England on September 9 is one of the few certainties left. Nearly everything else remains tied to old decisions, old contracts and old projections.
Now the league gets to find out which of those bets were still good ones.