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Videos · October 28, 2026 · 65 seconds

Cheap Cocoa, Pricey Chocolate: The Lag Behind Halloween Candy Prices

Cocoa futures have fallen by more than half since their late-2024 record, yet Halloween chocolate costs more than it did last year. The beans in this year's bags were priced a year ago, the savings are due in 2027, and they are more likely to arrive as deals than as a lower sticker.

Read the full articleby Adam Cannizzaro

Transcript

CHEAP COCOA, PRICEY CHOCOLATE: THE LAG BEHIND HALLOWEEN CANDY PRICES

[THE PUZZLE] Record cocoa, pricier candy.

  • Cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate, hit a record in late 2024, then fell almost 80%.
  • Yet Halloween chocolate costs more than it did last year.

[THE LAG] Priced a year ahead.

  • Chocolate makers buy cocoa months, even years ahead.
  • We lined up the prices: world cocoa peaked in January 2025, but American candy prices kept climbing for another 17 months.

[THE STICKER] Relief arrives sideways.

  • And when costs fall, companies rarely cut the sticker price.
  • Relief shows up as discounts, bigger bags, or buy-one-get-one deals.

[THE WRAPPER] Thinner bars, new coatings.

  • Some bars also got thinner, and some coatings can't legally be called milk chocolate.

[THE FARMERS] Fixed prices, missed boom.

  • Farmers in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, who grow most of the world's cocoa, mostly missed the boom, because their prices are fixed a year ahead.

[NEXT YEAR] About a year behind.

  • The beans for Halloween 2027 are being priced now.
  • The futures market moves in an afternoon.
  • The candy aisle takes about a year.

Read the full article at noozify.com. Images: Images: cocoa pods by the USDA (public domain); Halloween candy at a Publix by MatthewHoobin, a cocoa farmer by KokoDZ, and a cocoa farm by King Bangaba (CC BY-SA 4.0); chocolate by SKopp (CC BY-SA 3.0); drying beans by Francesco Veronesi (CC BY-SA 2.0); via Wikimedia Commons. Chart by Noozify (World Bank, BLS data).. Music: an original score for Noozify.